Colchester United U21 2–0 Cardiff City U21

Colchester United U21

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Cardiff City U21

2/26/2024

League #703 · Round 19Wallace Binder Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Colchester United U2146%

×Draw30%

Cardiff City U2124%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Colchester United U21Expected goals in this matchCardiff City U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.80

Colchester United U21

1.23

Cardiff City U21

0.80

Colchester United U21 creates 54% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

1.00

creates per match

0.92

0.67

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Colchester United U21

1.00

Cardiff City U21

0.92

allows per match

Colchester United U21

0.67

Cardiff City U21

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colchester United U21+0.00on par

Cardiff City U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester United U21 ↓

Cardiff City U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Colchester United U21 or draw

76%

Colchester United U21 or Cardiff City U21

70%

Draw or Cardiff City U21

54%

Winning margin

Colchester United U21 wins by 2+

21%

Cardiff City U21 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Colchester United U21 1+ goals

71%

Colchester United U21 2+ goals

35%

Colchester United U21 3+ goals

13%

Cardiff City U21 1+ goals

55%

Cardiff City U21 2+ goals

19%

Cardiff City U21 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Colchester United U21 (draw refunded)

66%

Cardiff City U21 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester United U21 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Cardiff City U21 away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester United U21 attack 1.00 + Cardiff City U21 defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Cardiff City U21 attack 0.92 + Colchester United U21 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Colchester United U21 scores more

46%

level

30%

Cardiff City U21 scores more

24%

Colchester United U21 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Colchester United U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff