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Colchagua vs Independiente — Segunda División 2020

Colchagua
Colchagua
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Independiente
Independiente
6/5/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 2Estadio El Teniente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Colchagua39%
×Draw27%
Independiente34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colchagua
1.34
Independiente
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 33 away

creates per match

Colchagua
1.14
Independiente
1.21

allows per match

Colchagua
1.25
Independiente
1.55

finishing

Colchagua+0.00on par
Independiente+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchagua ↓

Independiente →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Colchagua or draw
66%
Colchagua or Independiente
73%
Draw or Independiente
61%

Winning margin

Colchagua wins by 2+
18%
Independiente wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Colchagua 1+ goals
74%
Colchagua 2+ goals
39%
Colchagua 3+ goals
15%
Independiente 1+ goals
71%
Independiente 2+ goals
35%
Independiente 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Colchagua (draw refunded)
54%
Independiente (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchagua at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

Independiente away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchagua attack 1.14 + Independiente defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.34

Independiente attack 1.21 + Colchagua defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Colchagua scores more
39%
level
27%
Independiente scores more
34%

Colchagua at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Colchagua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colchagua vs Independiente

Independiente beat Colchagua 3-1 in Segunda División on June 5, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Teniente in Rancagua.