Colchagua 0–2 Fernández Vial: Result & Stats

Colchagua

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Fernández Vial

2/12/2021

Segunda División · Round 22Estadio El Teniente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Colchagua32%

×Draw28%

Fernández Vial40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColchaguaExpected goals in this matchFernández Vial

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.23

Colchagua

1.07

Fernández Vial

1.23

Fernández Vial creates 15% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 38 away

1.14

creates per match

1.21

1.25

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Colchagua

1.14

Fernández Vial

1.21

allows per match

Colchagua

1.25

Fernández Vial

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colchagua+0.00on par

Fernández Vial+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchagua ↓

Fernández Vial →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Colchagua or draw

60%

Colchagua or Fernández Vial

72%

Draw or Fernández Vial

68%

Winning margin

Colchagua wins by 2+

12%

Fernández Vial wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Colchagua 1+ goals

66%

Colchagua 2+ goals

29%

Colchagua 3+ goals

9%

Fernández Vial 1+ goals

71%

Fernández Vial 2+ goals

35%

Fernández Vial 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Colchagua (draw refunded)

45%

Fernández Vial (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchagua at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

Fernández Vial away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchagua attack 1.14 + Fernández Vial defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Fernández Vial attack 1.21 + Colchagua defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Colchagua scores more

32%

level

28%

Fernández Vial scores more

40%

Fernández Vial at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fernández Vial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff