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Coimbrões vs Régua — Taça de Portugal 2018

Coimbrões
Coimbrões
FT
4 – 1
Régua
Régua
9/8/2019Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundParque Silva Matos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Coimbrões72%
×Draw14%
Régua14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coimbrões
3.42
Régua
1.50

Coimbrões creates 128% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Coimbrões
1.67
Régua
0.67

allows per match

Coimbrões
2.33
Régua
5.17

finishing

Coimbrões+0.00on par
Régua+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coimbrões ↓

Régua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Coimbrões or draw
86%
Coimbrões or Régua
86%
Draw or Régua
28%

Winning margin

Coimbrões wins by 2+
54%
Régua wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Coimbrões 1+ goals
97%
Coimbrões 2+ goals
85%
Coimbrões 3+ goals
64%
Régua 1+ goals
78%
Régua 2+ goals
44%
Régua 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Coimbrões (draw refunded)
84%
Régua (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coimbrões at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Régua away — creates 0.67, concedes 5.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coimbrões attack 1.67 + Régua defence 5.17 → ÷2 → 3.42

Régua attack 0.67 + Coimbrões defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Coimbrões scores more
72%
level
14%
Régua scores more
14%

Coimbrões at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Coimbrões will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Coimbrões 4–1 Régua

Coimbrões beat Régua 4-1 in Taça de Portugal on September 8, 2019.

The match was played at Parque Silva Matos in Vila Nova de Gaia.