Coimbrões 2–3 Alverca: Result & Stats

Coimbrões

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Alverca

9/22/2024

Taça de Portugal · 2nd RoundParque Silva Matos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Coimbrões32%

×Draw22%

Alverca46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoimbrõesExpected goals in this matchAlverca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.86

Coimbrões

1.53

Alverca

1.86

Alverca creates 22% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.67

creates per match

1.40

2.33

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Coimbrões

1.67

Alverca

1.40

allows per match

Coimbrões

2.33

Alverca

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coimbrões+0.00on par

Alverca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coimbrões ↓

Alverca →

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Coimbrões or draw

54%

Coimbrões or Alverca

78%

Draw or Alverca

68%

Winning margin

Coimbrões wins by 2+

15%

Alverca wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Coimbrões 1+ goals

78%

Coimbrões 2+ goals

45%

Coimbrões 3+ goals

20%

Alverca 1+ goals

84%

Alverca 2+ goals

55%

Alverca 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Coimbrões (draw refunded)

41%

Alverca (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Coimbrões at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Alverca away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Coimbrões attack 1.67 + Alverca defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.53

Alverca attack 1.40 + Coimbrões defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Coimbrões scores more

32%

level

22%

Alverca scores more

46%

Alverca at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Alverca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff