Coimbra 0–2 Nacional AC MG: Result & Stats

Coimbra

FT

0 – 2

Nacional AC MG

4/27/2022

Mineiro - 2 · Round 1Estádio Municipal Castor de Cifuentes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Coimbra37%

×Draw31%

Nacional AC MG32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoimbraExpected goals in this matchNacional AC MG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.97

Coimbra

1.06

Nacional AC MG

0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 34 away

1.00

creates per match

1.03

0.91

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Coimbra

1.00

Nacional AC MG

1.03

allows per match

Coimbra

0.91

Nacional AC MG

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coimbra+0.00on par

Nacional AC MG+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coimbra ↓

Nacional AC MG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Coimbra or draw

68%

Coimbra or Nacional AC MG

69%

Draw or Nacional AC MG

63%

Winning margin

Coimbra wins by 2+

15%

Nacional AC MG wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Coimbra 1+ goals

65%

Coimbra 2+ goals

29%

Coimbra 3+ goals

9%

Nacional AC MG 1+ goals

62%

Nacional AC MG 2+ goals

25%

Nacional AC MG 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Coimbra (draw refunded)

53%

Nacional AC MG (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coimbra at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Nacional AC MG away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coimbra attack 1.00 + Nacional AC MG defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.06

Nacional AC MG attack 1.03 + Coimbra defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Coimbra scores more

37%

level

31%

Nacional AC MG scores more

32%

Coimbra at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Coimbra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff