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Coimbra vs Democrata SL — Mineiro - 2 2026

Coimbra
Coimbra
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Democrata SL
Democrata SL
Kaue Muniz 90+2'
Leo Cereja 45+2'
6/17/2026Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Coimbra35%
×Draw32%
Democrata SL33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coimbra
0.98
Democrata SL
0.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 40 away

creates per match

Coimbra
1.00
Democrata SL
0.97

allows per match

Coimbra
0.91
Democrata SL
0.97

finishing

Coimbra+0.00on par
Democrata SL+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 70Over: 3070%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 62Yes: 3862%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coimbra ↓

Democrata SL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Coimbra or draw
67%
Coimbra or Democrata SL
68%
Draw or Democrata SL
65%

Winning margin

Coimbra wins by 2+
13%
Democrata SL wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Coimbra 1+ goals
62%
Coimbra 2+ goals
26%
Coimbra 3+ goals
8%
Democrata SL 1+ goals
61%
Democrata SL 2+ goals
24%
Democrata SL 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Coimbra (draw refunded)
52%
Democrata SL (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coimbra at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Democrata SL away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.97 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coimbra attack 1.00 + Democrata SL defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.98

Democrata SL attack 0.97 + Coimbra defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Coimbra scores more
35%
level
32%
Democrata SL scores more
33%

Coimbra at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Coimbra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+2'
Leo Cereja
84'
Gustavinho
84'
Gustavinho
90+2'
Kaue Muniz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coimbra 1 – 1 Democrata SL

Coimbra and Democrata SL drew 1-1 in Mineiro - 2 on June 17, 2026.

Goals: Leo Cereja (45+2'), Kaue Muniz (90+2').