Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Coimbra U20 vs Uberaba U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Coimbra U20
Coimbra U20
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Uberaba U20
Uberaba U20
Kevin Pires 36'
7/12/2025Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 8Centro de Treinamento Flávio Pentagna Guimarães

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Coimbra U2050%
×Draw25%
Uberaba U2024%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coimbra U20
1.57
Uberaba U20
1.01

Coimbra U20 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 9 away

creates per match

Coimbra U20
1.36
Uberaba U20
0.89

allows per match

Coimbra U20
1.14
Uberaba U20
1.78

finishing

Coimbra U20+0.00on par
Uberaba U20+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coimbra U20 ↓

Uberaba U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Coimbra U20 or draw
76%
Coimbra U20 or Uberaba U20
75%
Draw or Uberaba U20
50%

Winning margin

Coimbra U20 wins by 2+
26%
Uberaba U20 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Coimbra U20 1+ goals
79%
Coimbra U20 2+ goals
46%
Coimbra U20 3+ goals
21%
Uberaba U20 1+ goals
64%
Uberaba U20 2+ goals
27%
Uberaba U20 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Coimbra U20 (draw refunded)
67%
Uberaba U20 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coimbra U20 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Uberaba U20 away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coimbra U20 attack 1.36 + Uberaba U20 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.57

Uberaba U20 attack 0.89 + Coimbra U20 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Coimbra U20 scores more
50%
level
25%
Uberaba U20 scores more
24%

Coimbra U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Coimbra U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
Kevin Pires

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro U20: Coimbra U20 1–0 Uberaba U20

Coimbra U20 beat Uberaba U20 1-0 in Mineiro U20 on July 12, 2025.

Goals: Kevin Pires (36').

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento Flávio Pentagna Guimarães in Contagem, Minas Gerais.