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Coimbra U20 vs Tres Coracoes U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Coimbra U20
Coimbra U20
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Tres Coracoes U20
Tres Coracoes U20
J. Paulo 38'
Jeffao 31', 20'
7/20/2024Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 11Centro de Treinamento Flávio Pentagna Guimarães

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Coimbra U2044%
×Draw23%
Tres Coracoes U2033%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coimbra U20
1.75
Tres Coracoes U20
1.50

Coimbra U20 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 7 away

creates per match

Coimbra U20
1.36
Tres Coracoes U20
1.86

allows per match

Coimbra U20
1.14
Tres Coracoes U20
2.14

finishing

Coimbra U20+0.00on par
Tres Coracoes U20+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coimbra U20 ↓

Tres Coracoes U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Coimbra U20 or draw
67%
Coimbra U20 or Tres Coracoes U20
77%
Draw or Tres Coracoes U20
56%

Winning margin

Coimbra U20 wins by 2+
23%
Tres Coracoes U20 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Coimbra U20 1+ goals
83%
Coimbra U20 2+ goals
52%
Coimbra U20 3+ goals
25%
Tres Coracoes U20 1+ goals
78%
Tres Coracoes U20 2+ goals
44%
Tres Coracoes U20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Coimbra U20 (draw refunded)
57%
Tres Coracoes U20 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coimbra U20 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Tres Coracoes U20 away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coimbra U20 attack 1.36 + Tres Coracoes U20 defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.75

Tres Coracoes U20 attack 1.86 + Coimbra U20 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Coimbra U20 scores more
44%
level
23%
Tres Coracoes U20 scores more
33%

Coimbra U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Coimbra U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
Jeffao
31'
Jeffao
38'
J. Paulo
77'
M. Machado

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Coimbra U20 vs Tres Coracoes U20

Coimbra U20 beat Tres Coracoes U20 3-0 in Mineiro U20 on July 20, 2024.

Goals: Jeffao (20', 31'), J. Paulo (38').

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento Flávio Pentagna Guimarães in Contagem, Minas Gerais.