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Coimbra U20 vs Contagem U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Coimbra U20
Coimbra U20
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Contagem U20
Contagem U20
Jeffao 26'
Klayver 22'
Unknown 58', 50', 41', 6'
6/1/2024Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 4Centro de Treinamento Flávio Pentagna Guimarães

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Coimbra U2046%
×Draw28%
Contagem U2026%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coimbra U20
1.31
Contagem U20
0.91

Coimbra U20 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 12 away

creates per match

Coimbra U20
1.36
Contagem U20
0.67

allows per match

Coimbra U20
1.14
Contagem U20
1.25

finishing

Coimbra U20+0.00on par
Contagem U20+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coimbra U20 ↓

Contagem U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Coimbra U20 or draw
74%
Coimbra U20 or Contagem U20
72%
Draw or Contagem U20
54%

Winning margin

Coimbra U20 wins by 2+
21%
Contagem U20 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Coimbra U20 1+ goals
73%
Coimbra U20 2+ goals
38%
Coimbra U20 3+ goals
14%
Contagem U20 1+ goals
60%
Contagem U20 2+ goals
23%
Contagem U20 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Coimbra U20 (draw refunded)
64%
Contagem U20 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coimbra U20 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Contagem U20 away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coimbra U20 attack 1.36 + Contagem U20 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

Contagem U20 attack 0.67 + Coimbra U20 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Coimbra U20 scores more
46%
level
28%
Contagem U20 scores more
26%

Coimbra U20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Coimbra U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
22'
Klayver
26'
Jeffao
41'
50'
58'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro U20: Coimbra U20 2–4 Contagem U20

Contagem U20 beat Coimbra U20 4-2 in Mineiro U20 on June 1, 2024.

Goals: ? (6', 41', 50', 58'), Klayver (22'), Jeffao (26').

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento Flávio Pentagna Guimarães in Contagem, Minas Gerais.