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Coimbra U20 vs Atlético Mineiro U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Coimbra U20
Coimbra U20
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Atlético Mineiro U20
Atlético Mineiro U20
Kevin Pires 81', 57'
Vinicius Cesar 5'
Batata 2'
Unknown 79'
8/9/2025Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 11Centro de Treinamento Flávio Pentagna Guimarães

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Coimbra U2026%
×Draw23%
Atlético Mineiro U2051%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coimbra U20
1.25
Atlético Mineiro U20
1.82

Atlético Mineiro U20 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 24 away

creates per match

Coimbra U20
1.36
Atlético Mineiro U20
2.50

allows per match

Coimbra U20
1.14
Atlético Mineiro U20
1.13

finishing

Coimbra U20+0.00on par
Atlético Mineiro U20+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coimbra U20 ↓

Atlético Mineiro U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Coimbra U20 or draw
49%
Coimbra U20 or Atlético Mineiro U20
77%
Draw or Atlético Mineiro U20
74%

Winning margin

Coimbra U20 wins by 2+
11%
Atlético Mineiro U20 wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Coimbra U20 1+ goals
71%
Coimbra U20 2+ goals
36%
Coimbra U20 3+ goals
13%
Atlético Mineiro U20 1+ goals
84%
Atlético Mineiro U20 2+ goals
54%
Atlético Mineiro U20 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Coimbra U20 (draw refunded)
34%
Atlético Mineiro U20 (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coimbra U20 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Atlético Mineiro U20 away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coimbra U20 attack 1.36 + Atlético Mineiro U20 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Atlético Mineiro U20 attack 2.50 + Coimbra U20 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Coimbra U20 scores more
26%
level
23%
Atlético Mineiro U20 scores more
51%

Atlético Mineiro U20 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Atlético Mineiro U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
Batata
5'
Vinicius Cesar
57'
Kevin Pires
79'
81'
Kevin Pires

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Coimbra U20 vs Atlético Mineiro U20

Coimbra U20 beat Atlético Mineiro U20 4-1 in Mineiro U20 on August 9, 2025.

Goals: Batata (2'), Vinicius Cesar (5'), Kevin Pires (57', 81'), ? (79').

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento Flávio Pentagna Guimarães in Contagem, Minas Gerais.