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Coffrane vs Sion II — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Coffrane
Coffrane
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sion II
Sion II
8/23/20251. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Centre Sportif Les Geneveys-sur-Coffrane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Coffrane33%
×Draw23%
Sion II44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coffrane
1.51
Sion II
1.76

Sion II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

creates per match

Coffrane
1.30
Sion II
1.60

allows per match

Coffrane
1.92
Sion II
1.72

finishing

Coffrane+0.00on par
Sion II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coffrane ↓

Sion II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Coffrane or draw
56%
Coffrane or Sion II
77%
Draw or Sion II
67%

Winning margin

Coffrane wins by 2+
16%
Sion II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Coffrane 1+ goals
78%
Coffrane 2+ goals
44%
Coffrane 3+ goals
19%
Sion II 1+ goals
83%
Sion II 2+ goals
52%
Sion II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Coffrane (draw refunded)
43%
Sion II (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coffrane at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.92 · 60 matches

Sion II away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.72 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coffrane attack 1.30 + Sion II defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.51

Sion II attack 1.60 + Coffrane defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Coffrane scores more
33%
level
23%
Sion II scores more
44%

Sion II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sion II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 1: Coffrane 0–0 Sion II

Coffrane and Sion II drew 0-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on August 23, 2025.

The match was played at Centre Sportif Les Geneveys-sur-Coffrane in Les Geneveys-sur-Coffrane.