Codru Lozova 0–3 Zimbru: Result & Stats

Codru Lozova

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Zimbru

D. Pîslă 85'

A. Cojocari 51' (pen)

P. Neagu 48'

4/26/2019

Super Liga · Round 7Baza Zimbru (Chişinău)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Codru Lozova18%

×Draw21%

Zimbru61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Codru LozovaExpected goals in this matchZimbru

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

2.06

Codru Lozova

1.02

Zimbru

2.06

Zimbru creates 102% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 95 away

0.61

creates per match

1.20

2.93

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Codru Lozova

0.61

Zimbru

1.20

allows per match

Codru Lozova

2.93

Zimbru

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Codru Lozova+0.00on par

Zimbru+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Codru Lozova ↓

Zimbru →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Codru Lozova or draw

39%

Codru Lozova or Zimbru

79%

Draw or Zimbru

82%

Winning margin

Codru Lozova wins by 2+

6%

Zimbru wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Codru Lozova 1+ goals

64%

Codru Lozova 2+ goals

27%

Codru Lozova 3+ goals

8%

Zimbru 1+ goals

87%

Zimbru 2+ goals

61%

Zimbru 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Codru Lozova (draw refunded)

23%

Zimbru (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Codru Lozova at home — creates 0.61, concedes 2.93 · 28 matches

Zimbru away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.43 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Codru Lozova attack 0.61 + Zimbru defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.02

Zimbru attack 1.20 + Codru Lozova defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Codru Lozova scores more

18%

level

21%

Zimbru scores more

61%

Zimbru at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Zimbru will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

N. Iuraşco← A. Vacarciuc

48'

P. Neagu

51'

A. CojocariPenalty

52'

A. Zabun← D. Adam

72'

I. Donțu← R. Scoarţă

78'

C. Ursu← C. Ţîbuleac

81'

N. Trifonov← I. Mamaliga

85'

D. Pîslă

88'

P. Secrier← P. Neagu

Codru

Zimbru

25

4

2

27

23

▼

Vacarciuc

11

⚽

Cojocari

17

⚽

Pîslă

20

Nagornîi

99

▼

Scoarţă

8

Barabaș

21

⚽

▼

Neagu

1

Pascarenc

5

Rusu

11

▼

30

28

10

73

9

4

6

▼

Ţîbuleac

7

▼

Adam

Manager: V. Andronic

52'▲A. Zabun←▼D. Adam

78'▲C. Ursu←▼C. Ţîbuleac

81'▲N. Trifonov←▼I. Mamaliga

Codru Lozova substitutes

23Zabun2Ursu19Trifonov3Ochincă97Nazar96Osipenco25Ţurcan

Manager: S. Colceag

46'▲N. Iuraşco←▼A. Vacarciuc

72'▲I. Donțu←▼R. Scoarţă

88'▲P. Secrier←▼P. Neagu

Zimbru substitutes

7Iuraşco9Donțu91Secrier3Chișca12Șmalenea15Belevschi22Guştiuc