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Codru Lozova vs Floreşti — Super Liga 2026

Codru Lozova
Codru Lozova
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Floreşti
Floreşti
9/24/2020Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 11Complexul Sportiv Raional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Codru Lozova36%
×Draw22%
Floreşti42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Codru Lozova
1.71
Floreşti
1.87

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 62 away

creates per match

Codru Lozova
0.61
Floreşti
0.81

allows per match

Codru Lozova
2.93
Floreşti
2.82

finishing

Codru Lozova+0.00on par
Floreşti+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Codru Lozova ↓

Floreşti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Codru Lozova or draw
58%
Codru Lozova or Floreşti
78%
Draw or Floreşti
64%

Winning margin

Codru Lozova wins by 2+
18%
Floreşti wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Codru Lozova 1+ goals
82%
Codru Lozova 2+ goals
51%
Codru Lozova 3+ goals
24%
Floreşti 1+ goals
85%
Floreşti 2+ goals
56%
Floreşti 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Codru Lozova (draw refunded)
46%
Floreşti (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Codru Lozova at home — creates 0.61, concedes 2.93 · 28 matches

Floreşti away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.82 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Codru Lozova attack 0.61 + Floreşti defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 1.71

Floreşti attack 0.81 + Codru Lozova defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Codru Lozova scores more
36%
level
22%
Floreşti scores more
42%

Floreşti at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Floreşti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Codru Lozova vs Floreşti

Codru Lozova and Floreşti drew 1-1 in Super Liga on September 24, 2020.

The match was played at Complexul Sportiv Raional in Orhei.