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Codru Călărași II vs Iskra — Cupa 2020

Codru Călărași II
Codru Călărași II
FT
2 – 5
HT: 2 – 3
Iskra
Iskra
9/24/2024CupaCupa · 1st RoundStadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Codru Călărași II13%
×Draw16%
Iskra70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Codru Călărași II
1.06
Iskra
2.63

Iskra creates 148% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Codru Călărași II
1.00
Iskra
2.50

allows per match

Codru Călărași II
2.75
Iskra
1.13

finishing

Codru Călărași II+0.00on par
Iskra+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Codru Călărași II ↓

Iskra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Codru Călărași II or draw
30%
Codru Călărași II or Iskra
84%
Draw or Iskra
87%

Winning margin

Codru Călărași II wins by 2+
5%
Iskra wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Codru Călărași II 1+ goals
65%
Codru Călărași II 2+ goals
29%
Codru Călărași II 3+ goals
9%
Iskra 1+ goals
93%
Iskra 2+ goals
73%
Iskra 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Codru Călărași II (draw refunded)
16%
Iskra (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Codru Călărași II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Iskra away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Codru Călărași II attack 1.00 + Iskra defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Iskra attack 2.50 + Codru Călărași II defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Codru Călărași II scores more
13%
level
16%
Iskra scores more
70%

Iskra at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Iskra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Codru Călărași II vs Iskra

Iskra beat Codru Călărași II 5-2 in Cupa on September 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Orăşenesc in Călăraşi.