Codru Călărași II 2–3 FCM Ungheni: Result & Stats

Codru Călărași II

2 – 3

FCM Ungheni

8/24/2021

Cupa · 1st RoundStadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Codru Călărași II31%

×Draw19%

FCM Ungheni50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Codru Călărași IIExpected goals in this matchFCM Ungheni

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

2.48

Codru Călărași II

1.95

FCM Ungheni

2.48

FCM Ungheni creates 27% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

1.00

creates per match

2.20

2.75

allows per match

2.90

creates per match

Codru Călărași II

1.00

FCM Ungheni

2.20

allows per match

Codru Călărași II

2.75

FCM Ungheni

2.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Codru Călărași II+0.00on par

FCM Ungheni+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Codru Călărași II ↓

FCM Ungheni →

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1–02%

1–16%

1–27%

1–36%

1–44%

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Codru Călărași II or draw

50%

Codru Călărași II or FCM Ungheni

81%

Draw or FCM Ungheni

69%

Winning margin

Codru Călărași II wins by 2+

16%

FCM Ungheni wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Codru Călărași II 1+ goals

86%

Codru Călărași II 2+ goals

58%

Codru Călărași II 3+ goals

31%

FCM Ungheni 1+ goals

92%

FCM Ungheni 2+ goals

70%

FCM Ungheni 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

Codru Călărași II (draw refunded)

38%

FCM Ungheni (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Codru Călărași II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

FCM Ungheni away — creates 2.20, concedes 2.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Codru Călărași II attack 1.00 + FCM Ungheni defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 1.95

FCM Ungheni attack 2.20 + Codru Călărași II defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Codru Călărași II scores more

31%

level

19%

FCM Ungheni scores more

50%

FCM Ungheni at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FCM Ungheni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff