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CODM Meknès vs Rapide Oued ZEM — Botola 2 2025

CODM Meknès
CODM Meknès
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Rapide Oued ZEM
Rapide Oued ZEM
2/11/2024Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 16Stade d'Honneur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

CODM Meknès48%
×Draw28%
Rapide Oued ZEM25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CODM Meknès
1.36
Rapide Oued ZEM
0.89

CODM Meknès creates 53% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

CODM Meknès
1.60
Rapide Oued ZEM
0.91

allows per match

CODM Meknès
0.87
Rapide Oued ZEM
1.13

finishing

CODM Meknès+0.00on par
Rapide Oued ZEM+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CODM Meknès ↓

Rapide Oued ZEM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

CODM Meknès or draw
75%
CODM Meknès or Rapide Oued ZEM
72%
Draw or Rapide Oued ZEM
52%

Winning margin

CODM Meknès wins by 2+
23%
Rapide Oued ZEM wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CODM Meknès 1+ goals
74%
CODM Meknès 2+ goals
39%
CODM Meknès 3+ goals
16%
Rapide Oued ZEM 1+ goals
59%
Rapide Oued ZEM 2+ goals
22%
Rapide Oued ZEM 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

CODM Meknès (draw refunded)
66%
Rapide Oued ZEM (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CODM Meknès at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Rapide Oued ZEM away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CODM Meknès attack 1.60 + Rapide Oued ZEM defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.36

Rapide Oued ZEM attack 0.91 + CODM Meknès defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

CODM Meknès scores more
48%
level
28%
Rapide Oued ZEM scores more
25%

CODM Meknès at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CODM Meknès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CODM Meknès vs Rapide Oued ZEM

CODM Meknès beat Rapide Oued ZEM 2-1 in Botola 2 on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stade d'Honneur in Meknès.