CODM Meknès 1–0 Ittihad Tanger: Result & Stats

CODM Meknès

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ittihad Tanger

O. Daoui 80'

12/14/2024

Botola Pro · Round 14Stade d'Honneur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

CODM Meknès44%

×Draw29%

Ittihad Tanger27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CODM MeknèsExpected goals in this matchIttihad Tanger

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.88

CODM Meknès

1.21

Ittihad Tanger

0.88

CODM Meknès creates 38% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 116 away

1.03

creates per match

0.89

0.87

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

CODM Meknès

1.03

Ittihad Tanger

0.89

allows per match

CODM Meknès

0.87

Ittihad Tanger

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CODM Meknès+0.00on par

Ittihad Tanger+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CODM Meknès ↓

Ittihad Tanger →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

CODM Meknès or draw

73%

CODM Meknès or Ittihad Tanger

71%

Draw or Ittihad Tanger

56%

Winning margin

CODM Meknès wins by 2+

19%

Ittihad Tanger wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

CODM Meknès 1+ goals

70%

CODM Meknès 2+ goals

34%

CODM Meknès 3+ goals

12%

Ittihad Tanger 1+ goals

59%

Ittihad Tanger 2+ goals

22%

Ittihad Tanger 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

CODM Meknès (draw refunded)

62%

Ittihad Tanger (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CODM Meknès at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.87 · 30 matches

Ittihad Tanger away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.38 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CODM Meknès attack 1.03 + Ittihad Tanger defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.21

Ittihad Tanger attack 0.89 + CODM Meknès defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

CODM Meknès scores more

44%

level

29%

Ittihad Tanger scores more

27%

CODM Meknès at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "CODM Meknès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Y. Chaina← N. Aarab

65'

Z. Eddib← I. Mihrab

72'

A. El Jorfi

73'

M. El Ouardi← A. Mehri

73'

B. El Idrissi Bouzidi← M. Radouani

74'

A. Lamrabat← A. Maâli

80'

O. Daoui

86'

Y. Chaina

90+4'

H. Malki

90+3'

M. Hadda← M. Goullous

CODM

Ittihad

73

31

18

15

22

13

6

▼

Aarab

30

Harrak

8

Abdelmout

17

▼

19

34

4

3

14

8

▼

Radouani

10

▼

Goullous

16

⚽

Daoui

6

Berdad

95

▼

Mehri

11

▼

Mihrab

9

Mahraoui

Manager: A. Jrindou

65'▲Z. Eddib←▼I. Mihrab

73'▲M. El Ouardi←▼A. Mehri

73'▲B. El Idrissi Bouzidi←▼M. Radouani

90+3'▲M. Hadda←▼M. Goullous

CODM Meknès substitutes

99Eddib21Ouardi24Bouzidi15Hadda1Barrouhou5Hamoudi17Bahaj25Gharmal98Khabchi

Manager: H. Et-Tair

46'▲Y. Chaina←▼N. Aarab

74'▲A. Lamrabat←▼A. Maâli

Ittihad Tanger substitutes

2Chaina23Lamrabat24Wahabi26Hachloufi27Dani35Moujahid38Benfakir43Frizit49Moussaoui