CODM Meknès 1–0 Hassania Agadir: Result & Stats

CODM Meknès

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hassania Agadir

I. Mihrab 87'

2/27/2025

Botola Pro · Round 23Stade d'Honneur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

CODM Meknès42%

×Draw31%

Hassania Agadir27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CODM MeknèsExpected goals in this matchHassania Agadir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.83

CODM Meknès

1.10

Hassania Agadir

0.83

CODM Meknès creates 33% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 119 away

1.03

creates per match

0.80

0.87

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

CODM Meknès

1.03

Hassania Agadir

0.80

allows per match

CODM Meknès

0.87

Hassania Agadir

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CODM Meknès+0.00on par

Hassania Agadir+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CODM Meknès ↓

Hassania Agadir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

CODM Meknès or draw

73%

CODM Meknès or Hassania Agadir

69%

Draw or Hassania Agadir

58%

Winning margin

CODM Meknès wins by 2+

17%

Hassania Agadir wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

CODM Meknès 1+ goals

67%

CODM Meknès 2+ goals

30%

CODM Meknès 3+ goals

10%

Hassania Agadir 1+ goals

56%

Hassania Agadir 2+ goals

20%

Hassania Agadir 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

CODM Meknès (draw refunded)

60%

Hassania Agadir (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CODM Meknès at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.87 · 30 matches

Hassania Agadir away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.18 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CODM Meknès attack 1.03 + Hassania Agadir defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.10

Hassania Agadir attack 0.80 + CODM Meknès defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

CODM Meknès scores more

42%

level

31%

Hassania Agadir scores more

27%

CODM Meknès at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "CODM Meknès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

J. Tachtach

46'

A. Berdad

60'

M. Katiba← M. Bakhkhach

64'

M. Katiba

69'

A. El Mahraoui

73'

I. Mihrab← M. Radouani

73'

A. Mehri← Z. Eddib

79'

C. Faye← M. Goullous

82'

A. Haimoud← A. Boukhanfer

87'

I. Mihrab

88'

Y. Rami

90'

H. Kalai

90+4'

H. Ait Brayem← A. El Mahraoui

CODM

Hassania

61

4

25

5

2

23

8

27

10

▼

Boukhanfe

7

▼

18

34

13

90

4

8

▼

Radouani

10

▼

24

16

6

9

▼

Mahraoui

99

▼

Eddib

Manager: A. Jrindou

73'▲I. Mihrab←▼M. Radouani

73'▲A. Mehri←▼Z. Eddib

79'▲C. Faye←▼M. Goullous

90+4'▲H. Ait Brayem←▼A. El Mahraoui

CODM Meknès substitutes

11Mihrab95Mehri27Faye35Brayem1Barrouhou14Nsue23Marroun17Likibi77Senhaji

Manager: A. Sektioui

60'▲M. Katiba←▼M. Bakhkhach

82'▲A. Haimoud←▼A. Boukhanfer

Hassania Agadir substitutes

20Katiba30Haimoud11Dahmoun13Moumadi21Bahi34Hrila65Majhad32Akoumi17Kaidi