Cockburn City 1–1 Kalamunda City: Result & Stats

Cockburn City

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Kalamunda City

9/20/2025

Western Australia State League 1 · Relegation Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Cockburn City35%

×Draw26%

Kalamunda City38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cockburn CityExpected goals in this matchKalamunda City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.34

Cockburn City

1.28

Kalamunda City

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 11 away

1.38

creates per match

0.82

1.86

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Cockburn City

1.38

Kalamunda City

0.82

allows per match

Cockburn City

1.86

Kalamunda City

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cockburn City+0.00on par

Kalamunda City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cockburn City ↓

Kalamunda City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cockburn City or draw

62%

Cockburn City or Kalamunda City

74%

Draw or Kalamunda City

65%

Winning margin

Cockburn City wins by 2+

15%

Kalamunda City wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Cockburn City 1+ goals

72%

Cockburn City 2+ goals

37%

Cockburn City 3+ goals

14%

Kalamunda City 1+ goals

74%

Kalamunda City 2+ goals

39%

Kalamunda City 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Cockburn City (draw refunded)

48%

Kalamunda City (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cockburn City at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

Kalamunda City away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cockburn City attack 1.38 + Kalamunda City defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.28

Kalamunda City attack 0.82 + Cockburn City defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cockburn City scores more

35%

level

26%

Kalamunda City scores more

38%

Kalamunda City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kalamunda City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff