Cockburn City 1–0 Gosnells City: Result & Stats

Cockburn City

FT

1 – 0

Gosnells City

5/4/2024

Western Australia State League 1 · Round 6Dalmatinac Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Cockburn City48%

×Draw23%

Gosnells City30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cockburn CityExpected goals in this matchGosnells City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.39

Cockburn City

1.82

Gosnells City

1.39

Cockburn City creates 31% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 22 away

1.38

creates per match

0.91

1.86

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Cockburn City

1.38

Gosnells City

0.91

allows per match

Cockburn City

1.86

Gosnells City

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cockburn City+0.00on par

Gosnells City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cockburn City ↓

Gosnells City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Cockburn City or draw

70%

Cockburn City or Gosnells City

77%

Draw or Gosnells City

52%

Winning margin

Cockburn City wins by 2+

26%

Gosnells City wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Cockburn City 1+ goals

84%

Cockburn City 2+ goals

54%

Cockburn City 3+ goals

27%

Gosnells City 1+ goals

75%

Gosnells City 2+ goals

40%

Gosnells City 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Cockburn City (draw refunded)

62%

Gosnells City (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cockburn City at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

Gosnells City away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.27 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cockburn City attack 1.38 + Gosnells City defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.82

Gosnells City attack 0.91 + Cockburn City defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cockburn City scores more

48%

level

23%

Gosnells City scores more

30%

Cockburn City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cockburn City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff