Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Coca-Cola vs Zamalek SC — Premier League 2018

Coca-Cola
Coca-Cola
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Zamalek SC
Zamalek SC
11/29/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7WE Al-Ahly Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Coca-Cola30%
×Draw30%
Zamalek SC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coca-Cola
0.96
Zamalek SC
1.16

Zamalek SC creates 21% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 125 away

creates per match

Coca-Cola
0.99
Zamalek SC
1.51

allows per match

Coca-Cola
0.81
Zamalek SC
0.94

finishing

Coca-Cola+0.00on par
Zamalek SC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coca-Cola ↓

Zamalek SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Coca-Cola or draw
60%
Coca-Cola or Zamalek SC
70%
Draw or Zamalek SC
70%

Winning margin

Coca-Cola wins by 2+
11%
Zamalek SC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Coca-Cola 1+ goals
62%
Coca-Cola 2+ goals
25%
Coca-Cola 3+ goals
7%
Zamalek SC 1+ goals
69%
Zamalek SC 2+ goals
32%
Zamalek SC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Coca-Cola (draw refunded)
43%
Zamalek SC (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coca-Cola at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.81 · 79 matches

Zamalek SC away — creates 1.51, concedes 0.94 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coca-Cola attack 0.99 + Zamalek SC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.96

Zamalek SC attack 1.51 + Coca-Cola defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Coca-Cola scores more
30%
level
30%
Zamalek SC scores more
40%

Zamalek SC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zamalek SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Coca-Cola vs Zamalek SC

Zamalek SC beat Coca-Cola 2-0 in Premier League on November 29, 2023.

The match was played at WE Al-Ahly Stadium in Cairo.