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Coca-Cola vs Misr EL Makasa — League Cup 2021

Coca-Cola
Coca-Cola
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Misr EL Makasa
Misr EL Makasa
1/20/2022League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 3WE Al-Ahly Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Coca-Cola28%
×Draw34%
Misr EL Makasa38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coca-Cola
0.75
Misr EL Makasa
0.92

Misr EL Makasa creates 23% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 4 away

creates per match

Coca-Cola
0.75
Misr EL Makasa
0.75

allows per match

Coca-Cola
1.08
Misr EL Makasa
0.75

finishing

Coca-Cola+0.00on par
Misr EL Makasa+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coca-Cola ↓

Misr EL Makasa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–117%
0–28%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Coca-Cola or draw
62%
Coca-Cola or Misr EL Makasa
66%
Draw or Misr EL Makasa
72%

Winning margin

Coca-Cola wins by 2+
9%
Misr EL Makasa wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Coca-Cola 1+ goals
53%
Coca-Cola 2+ goals
17%
Coca-Cola 3+ goals
4%
Misr EL Makasa 1+ goals
60%
Misr EL Makasa 2+ goals
23%
Misr EL Makasa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Coca-Cola (draw refunded)
43%
Misr EL Makasa (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coca-Cola at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Misr EL Makasa away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coca-Cola attack 0.75 + Misr EL Makasa defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.75

Misr EL Makasa attack 0.75 + Coca-Cola defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Coca-Cola scores more
28%
level
34%
Misr EL Makasa scores more
38%

Misr EL Makasa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Misr EL Makasa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Coca-Cola vs Misr EL Makasa

Coca-Cola beat Misr EL Makasa 1-0 in League Cup on January 20, 2022.

The match was played at WE Al-Ahly Stadium in Cairo.