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Coca-Cola vs Enppi — Premier League 2018

Coca-Cola
Coca-Cola
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Enppi
Enppi
11/5/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Cairo International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Coca-Cola38%
×Draw31%
Enppi31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coca-Cola
1.08
Enppi
0.94

Coca-Cola creates 15% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 130 away

creates per match

Coca-Cola
0.99
Enppi
1.07

allows per match

Coca-Cola
0.81
Enppi
1.18

finishing

Coca-Cola+0.00on par
Enppi+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coca-Cola ↓

Enppi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Coca-Cola or draw
69%
Coca-Cola or Enppi
69%
Draw or Enppi
62%

Winning margin

Coca-Cola wins by 2+
15%
Enppi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Coca-Cola 1+ goals
66%
Coca-Cola 2+ goals
29%
Coca-Cola 3+ goals
10%
Enppi 1+ goals
61%
Enppi 2+ goals
24%
Enppi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Coca-Cola (draw refunded)
55%
Enppi (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coca-Cola at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.81 · 79 matches

Enppi away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.18 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coca-Cola attack 0.99 + Enppi defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.08

Enppi attack 1.07 + Coca-Cola defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Coca-Cola scores more
38%
level
31%
Enppi scores more
31%

Coca-Cola at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Coca-Cola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Coca-Cola vs Enppi

Enppi beat Coca-Cola 1-0 in Premier League on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Cairo International Stadium in Cairo.