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Coca-Cola vs Ceramica Cleopatra — Premier League 2018

Coca-Cola
Coca-Cola
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ceramica Cleopatra
Ceramica Cleopatra
12/14/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9WE Al-Ahly Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Coca-Cola37%
×Draw30%
Ceramica Cleopatra32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coca-Cola
1.07
Ceramica Cleopatra
0.97

Coca-Cola creates 10% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 93 away

creates per match

Coca-Cola
0.99
Ceramica Cleopatra
1.12

allows per match

Coca-Cola
0.81
Ceramica Cleopatra
1.16

finishing

Coca-Cola+0.00on par
Ceramica Cleopatra+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coca-Cola ↓

Ceramica Cleopatra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Coca-Cola or draw
68%
Coca-Cola or Ceramica Cleopatra
70%
Draw or Ceramica Cleopatra
63%

Winning margin

Coca-Cola wins by 2+
15%
Ceramica Cleopatra wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Coca-Cola 1+ goals
66%
Coca-Cola 2+ goals
29%
Coca-Cola 3+ goals
9%
Ceramica Cleopatra 1+ goals
62%
Ceramica Cleopatra 2+ goals
25%
Ceramica Cleopatra 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Coca-Cola (draw refunded)
54%
Ceramica Cleopatra (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coca-Cola at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.81 · 79 matches

Ceramica Cleopatra away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.16 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coca-Cola attack 0.99 + Ceramica Cleopatra defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.07

Ceramica Cleopatra attack 1.12 + Coca-Cola defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Coca-Cola scores more
37%
level
30%
Ceramica Cleopatra scores more
32%

Coca-Cola at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Coca-Cola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Coca-Cola vs Ceramica Cleopatra

Coca-Cola and Ceramica Cleopatra drew 1-1 in Premier League on December 14, 2023.

The match was played at WE Al-Ahly Stadium in Cairo.