Coburg 1–2 Neudrossenfeld: Result & Stats

Coburg

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Neudrossenfeld

11/11/2023

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 21Dr.-Eugen-Stocke-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Coburg33%

×Draw22%

Neudrossenfeld46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoburgExpected goals in this matchNeudrossenfeld

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

2.00

Coburg

1.67

Neudrossenfeld

2.00

Neudrossenfeld creates 20% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

1.38

creates per match

1.35

2.65

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Coburg

1.38

Neudrossenfeld

1.35

allows per match

Coburg

2.65

Neudrossenfeld

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coburg+0.00on par

Neudrossenfeld+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coburg ↓

Neudrossenfeld →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Coburg or draw

54%

Coburg or Neudrossenfeld

78%

Draw or Neudrossenfeld

67%

Winning margin

Coburg wins by 2+

16%

Neudrossenfeld wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Coburg 1+ goals

81%

Coburg 2+ goals

50%

Coburg 3+ goals

23%

Neudrossenfeld 1+ goals

86%

Neudrossenfeld 2+ goals

59%

Neudrossenfeld 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Coburg (draw refunded)

42%

Neudrossenfeld (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coburg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.65 · 34 matches

Neudrossenfeld away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.96 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coburg attack 1.38 + Neudrossenfeld defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.67

Neudrossenfeld attack 1.35 + Coburg defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Coburg scores more

33%

level

22%

Neudrossenfeld scores more

46%

Neudrossenfeld at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Neudrossenfeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff