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Coburg vs Ingolstadt II — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Coburg
Coburg
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ingolstadt II
Ingolstadt II
5/2/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 32Dr.-Eugen-Stocke-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Coburg25%
×Draw20%
Ingolstadt II54%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coburg
1.48
Ingolstadt II
2.23

Ingolstadt II creates 51% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

creates per match

Coburg
1.38
Ingolstadt II
1.80

allows per match

Coburg
2.65
Ingolstadt II
1.57

finishing

Coburg+0.00on par
Ingolstadt II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coburg ↓

Ingolstadt II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Coburg or draw
46%
Coburg or Ingolstadt II
80%
Draw or Ingolstadt II
75%

Winning margin

Coburg wins by 2+
11%
Ingolstadt II wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Coburg 1+ goals
77%
Coburg 2+ goals
43%
Coburg 3+ goals
19%
Ingolstadt II 1+ goals
89%
Ingolstadt II 2+ goals
65%
Ingolstadt II 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Coburg (draw refunded)
32%
Ingolstadt II (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coburg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.65 · 34 matches

Ingolstadt II away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coburg attack 1.38 + Ingolstadt II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

Ingolstadt II attack 1.80 + Coburg defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Coburg scores more
25%
level
20%
Ingolstadt II scores more
54%

Ingolstadt II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ingolstadt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Coburg 4–0 Ingolstadt II

Coburg beat Ingolstadt II 4-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on May 2, 2026.

The match was played at Dr.-Eugen-Stocke-Stadion in Coburg.