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Coburg vs Eltersdorf — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Coburg
Coburg
FT
2 – 6
HT: 1 – 3
Eltersdorf
Eltersdorf
7/29/2023Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 3Dr.-Eugen-Stocke-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Coburg21%
×Draw20%
Eltersdorf59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coburg
1.25
Eltersdorf
2.21

Eltersdorf creates 77% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 68 away

creates per match

Coburg
1.38
Eltersdorf
1.78

allows per match

Coburg
2.65
Eltersdorf
1.13

finishing

Coburg+0.00on par
Eltersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coburg ↓

Eltersdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Coburg or draw
41%
Coburg or Eltersdorf
80%
Draw or Eltersdorf
79%

Winning margin

Coburg wins by 2+
8%
Eltersdorf wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Coburg 1+ goals
71%
Coburg 2+ goals
36%
Coburg 3+ goals
13%
Eltersdorf 1+ goals
89%
Eltersdorf 2+ goals
65%
Eltersdorf 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Coburg (draw refunded)
26%
Eltersdorf (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coburg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.65 · 34 matches

Eltersdorf away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.13 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coburg attack 1.38 + Eltersdorf defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Eltersdorf attack 1.78 + Coburg defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Coburg scores more
21%
level
20%
Eltersdorf scores more
59%

Eltersdorf at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Eltersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Coburg vs Eltersdorf

Eltersdorf beat Coburg 6-2 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at Dr.-Eugen-Stocke-Stadion in Coburg.