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Coburg vs Bayern Hof — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Coburg
Coburg
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Bayern Hof
Bayern Hof
3/7/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 23Dr.-Eugen-Stocke-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Coburg28%
×Draw21%
Bayern Hof51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coburg
1.50
Bayern Hof
2.08

Bayern Hof creates 39% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 68 away

creates per match

Coburg
1.38
Bayern Hof
1.51

allows per match

Coburg
2.65
Bayern Hof
1.62

finishing

Coburg+0.00on par
Bayern Hof+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coburg ↓

Bayern Hof →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Coburg or draw
49%
Coburg or Bayern Hof
79%
Draw or Bayern Hof
72%

Winning margin

Coburg wins by 2+
13%
Bayern Hof wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Coburg 1+ goals
78%
Coburg 2+ goals
44%
Coburg 3+ goals
19%
Bayern Hof 1+ goals
87%
Bayern Hof 2+ goals
61%
Bayern Hof 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Coburg (draw refunded)
35%
Bayern Hof (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coburg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.65 · 34 matches

Bayern Hof away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.62 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coburg attack 1.38 + Bayern Hof defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.50

Bayern Hof attack 1.51 + Coburg defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Coburg scores more
28%
level
21%
Bayern Hof scores more
51%

Bayern Hof at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bayern Hof will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Coburg 4–0 Bayern Hof

Coburg beat Bayern Hof 4-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on March 7, 2026.

The match was played at Dr.-Eugen-Stocke-Stadion in Coburg.