Coburg 0–2 ATSV Erlangen: Result & Stats

Coburg

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

ATSV Erlangen

3/16/2024

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 28Dr.-Eugen-Stocke-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Coburg31%

×Draw22%

ATSV Erlangen46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoburgExpected goals in this matchATSV Erlangen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.90

Coburg

1.53

ATSV Erlangen

1.90

ATSV Erlangen creates 24% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 68 away

1.38

creates per match

1.15

2.65

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Coburg

1.38

ATSV Erlangen

1.15

allows per match

Coburg

2.65

ATSV Erlangen

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coburg+0.00on par

ATSV Erlangen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coburg ↓

ATSV Erlangen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Coburg or draw

54%

Coburg or ATSV Erlangen

78%

Draw or ATSV Erlangen

69%

Winning margin

Coburg wins by 2+

15%

ATSV Erlangen wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Coburg 1+ goals

78%

Coburg 2+ goals

45%

Coburg 3+ goals

20%

ATSV Erlangen 1+ goals

85%

ATSV Erlangen 2+ goals

56%

ATSV Erlangen 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Coburg (draw refunded)

40%

ATSV Erlangen (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coburg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.65 · 34 matches

ATSV Erlangen away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.69 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coburg attack 1.38 + ATSV Erlangen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.53

ATSV Erlangen attack 1.15 + Coburg defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Coburg scores more

31%

level

22%

ATSV Erlangen scores more

46%

ATSV Erlangen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "ATSV Erlangen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff