Cobresal 3–1 Universidad de Concepcion

Cobresal

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Universidad de Concepcion

J. Gaete 83'

Rodolfo González 64'

F. Ragusa 15'

C. Waterman 57'

12/8/2020

Primera División · Round 22Estadio El Cobre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Cobresal51%

×Draw24%

Universidad de Concepcion25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CobresalExpected goals in this matchUniversidad de Concepcion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.14

Cobresal

1.73

Universidad de Concepcion

1.14

Cobresal creates 52% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 44 away

1.74

creates per match

1.11

1.17

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Cobresal

1.74

Universidad de Concepcion

1.11

allows per match

Cobresal

1.17

Universidad de Concepcion

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cobresal+0.00on par

Universidad de Concepcion+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cobresal ↓

Universidad de Concepcion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Cobresal or draw

75%

Cobresal or Universidad de Concepcion

76%

Draw or Universidad de Concepcion

49%

Winning margin

Cobresal wins by 2+

28%

Universidad de Concepcion wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cobresal 1+ goals

82%

Cobresal 2+ goals

52%

Cobresal 3+ goals

25%

Universidad de Concepcion 1+ goals

68%

Universidad de Concepcion 2+ goals

32%

Universidad de Concepcion 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cobresal (draw refunded)

67%

Universidad de Concepcion (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cobresal at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.17 · 107 matches

Universidad de Concepcion away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.73 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cobresal attack 1.74 + Universidad de Concepcion defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.73

Universidad de Concepcion attack 1.11 + Cobresal defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cobresal scores more

51%

level

24%

Universidad de Concepcion scores more

25%

Cobresal at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cobresal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Cañete

Cobresal · M

9.2

Match Events

15'

F. Ragusa↳ O. Salinas

36'

36'

45'

46'

57'

59'

J. Gaete← J. Santander

59'

F. Castro← S. Varas

59'

E. Farías← F. Ragusa

64'

Rodolfo González↳ M. Cañete

66'

J. Patiño← J. Carreño

68'

Alejandro Camargo

75'

Cecilio Waterman

79'

A. San Martín← A. Camargo

79'

G. Alles← C. Waterman

80'

I. Contreras← J. Gutiérrez

83'

Juan Carlos Gaete

83'

J. Gaete↳ M. Cañete

87'

D. Céspedes← M. Cañete

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CobresalUniversidad

Overview

61%Possession39%

20Total Shots10

3Corners4

8Fouls9

Shots

20Total Shots10

7On Target4

9Off Target5

4Blocked1

9Inside Box3

11Outside Box7

Passing

61%Possession39%

548Total Passes342

491Accurate Passes269

90%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards1

0Offsides1