Cobresal 3–3 Universidad de Chile: Result & Stats

Cobresal

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Universidad de Chile

7/21/2024

Primera División · Round 16Estadio El Cobre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Cobresal45%

×Draw25%

Universidad de Chile30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CobresalExpected goals in this matchUniversidad de Chile

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.21

Cobresal

1.54

Universidad de Chile

1.21

Cobresal creates 27% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 128 away

1.71

creates per match

1.27

1.14

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Cobresal

1.71

Universidad de Chile

1.27

allows per match

Cobresal

1.14

Universidad de Chile

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cobresal+0.00on par

Universidad de Chile+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cobresal ↓

Universidad de Chile →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Cobresal or draw

70%

Cobresal or Universidad de Chile

75%

Draw or Universidad de Chile

55%

Winning margin

Cobresal wins by 2+

23%

Universidad de Chile wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cobresal 1+ goals

79%

Cobresal 2+ goals

45%

Cobresal 3+ goals

20%

Universidad de Chile 1+ goals

70%

Universidad de Chile 2+ goals

34%

Universidad de Chile 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cobresal (draw refunded)

60%

Universidad de Chile (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cobresal at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.14 · 112 matches

Universidad de Chile away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.37 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cobresal attack 1.71 + Universidad de Chile defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.54

Universidad de Chile attack 1.27 + Cobresal defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cobresal scores more

45%

level

25%

Universidad de Chile scores more

30%

Cobresal at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cobresal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff