Cobresal 1–2 Everton de Vina: Result & Stats

Cobresal

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Everton de Vina

C. Barrera 84'

J. Alfaro 39'

A. Medina 15'

11/9/2025

Primera División · Round 27Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Cobresal54%

×Draw24%

Everton de Vina23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CobresalExpected goals in this matchEverton de Vina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.04

Cobresal

1.74

Everton de Vina

1.04

Cobresal creates 67% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

1.86

creates per match

0.97

1.12

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Cobresal

1.86

Everton de Vina

0.97

allows per match

Cobresal

1.12

Everton de Vina

1.61

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Cobresal-0.19scores less

Everton de Vina-0.06on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cobresal ↓

Everton de Vina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Cobresal or draw

77%

Cobresal or Everton de Vina

76%

Draw or Everton de Vina

46%

Winning margin

Cobresal wins by 2+

30%

Everton de Vina wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cobresal 1+ goals

82%

Cobresal 2+ goals

52%

Cobresal 3+ goals

25%

Everton de Vina 1+ goals

65%

Everton de Vina 2+ goals

28%

Everton de Vina 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cobresal (draw refunded)

70%

Everton de Vina (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cobresal at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.12 · 6 matches

Everton de Vina away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.61 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cobresal attack 1.86 + Everton de Vina defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.74

Everton de Vina attack 0.97 + Cobresal defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cobresal scores more

54%

level

24%

Everton de Vina scores more

23%

Cobresal at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cobresal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

C. Yanis

Cobresal · M

8.3

Match Events

15'

A. Medina

21'

Alan Medina

39'

J. Alfaro↳ S. Sosa

46'

F. Bechtholdt← F. Trinanes

46'

C. Mesias← A. Marquez

46'

D. Coelho← S. Carrasco

53'

63'

65'

65'

72'

76'

A. Vilches Araneda← C. Moreno

81'

D. Garcia← J. Moya

82'

Cristhofer Mesías

84'

C. Barrera↳ C. Yanis

90'

E. C. Serje Orozco← N. Baeza

90'

E. M. Ramos Aviles← S. Sosa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CobresalEverton

Overview

80%Possession20%

29Total Shots14

9Corners5

9Fouls8

Shots

29Total Shots14

11On Target7

10Off Target5

8Blocked2

10Inside Box7

19Outside Box7

Passing

80%Possession20%

627Total Passes159

560Accurate Passes102

89%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

5Saves9

Discipline

9Fouls8

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0