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Cobresal vs Deportes Valdivia — Primera B 2018

Cobresal
Cobresal
CANC
00:00
Deportes Valdivia
Deportes Valdivia
7/21/2018Primera BPrimera B · Round 16Estadio El Cobre (El Salvador, Diego de Almagro)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Cobresal68%
×Draw20%
Deportes Valdivia12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cobresal
1.96
Deportes Valdivia
0.68

Cobresal creates 188% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 36 away

creates per match

Cobresal
1.86
Deportes Valdivia
1.06

allows per match

Cobresal
0.29
Deportes Valdivia
2.06

finishing

Cobresal+0.00on par
Deportes Valdivia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cobresal ↓

Deportes Valdivia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cobresal or draw
88%
Cobresal or Deportes Valdivia
80%
Draw or Deportes Valdivia
32%

Winning margin

Cobresal wins by 2+
42%
Deportes Valdivia wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Cobresal 1+ goals
86%
Cobresal 2+ goals
58%
Cobresal 3+ goals
31%
Deportes Valdivia 1+ goals
49%
Deportes Valdivia 2+ goals
15%
Deportes Valdivia 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Cobresal (draw refunded)
85%
Deportes Valdivia (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cobresal at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

Deportes Valdivia away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.06 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cobresal attack 1.86 + Deportes Valdivia defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.96

Deportes Valdivia attack 1.06 + Cobresal defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Cobresal scores more
68%
level
20%
Deportes Valdivia scores more
12%

Cobresal at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Cobresal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cobresal face Deportes Valdivia (Primera B)

Primera B returns with Cobresal hosting Deportes Valdivia. Match starts July 21, 2018. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Cobresal host Deportes Valdivia at Estadio El Cobre (El Salvador, Diego de Almagro).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.