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Cobresal vs Deportes Iquique — Primera División 2018

Cobresal
Cobresal
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Deportes Iquique
Deportes Iquique
6/2/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 13Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Cobresal51%
×Draw24%
Deportes Iquique25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cobresal
1.71
Deportes Iquique
1.11

Cobresal creates 54% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 74 away

creates per match

Cobresal
1.71
Deportes Iquique
1.09

allows per match

Cobresal
1.14
Deportes Iquique
1.70

finishing

Cobresal+0.00on par
Deportes Iquique+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cobresal ↓

Deportes Iquique →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cobresal or draw
75%
Cobresal or Deportes Iquique
76%
Draw or Deportes Iquique
49%

Winning margin

Cobresal wins by 2+
28%
Deportes Iquique wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cobresal 1+ goals
82%
Cobresal 2+ goals
51%
Cobresal 3+ goals
24%
Deportes Iquique 1+ goals
67%
Deportes Iquique 2+ goals
30%
Deportes Iquique 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cobresal (draw refunded)
68%
Deportes Iquique (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cobresal at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.14 · 112 matches

Deportes Iquique away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.70 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cobresal attack 1.71 + Deportes Iquique defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.71

Deportes Iquique attack 1.09 + Cobresal defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cobresal scores more
51%
level
24%
Deportes Iquique scores more
25%

Cobresal at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cobresal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cobresal 2 – 1 Deportes Iquique

Cobresal beat Deportes Iquique 2-1 in Primera División on June 2, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador in El Salvador.