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Cobreloa vs Palestino — Copa Chile 2019

Cobreloa
Cobreloa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Palestino
Palestino
6/19/2022Copa ChileCopa Chile · 3rd RoundEstadio Zorros del Desierto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Cobreloa37%
×Draw27%
Palestino36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cobreloa
1.27
Palestino
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

creates per match

Cobreloa
1.31
Palestino
1.72

allows per match

Cobreloa
0.75
Palestino
1.22

finishing

Cobreloa+0.00on par
Palestino+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cobreloa ↓

Palestino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cobreloa or draw
64%
Cobreloa or Palestino
73%
Draw or Palestino
63%

Winning margin

Cobreloa wins by 2+
16%
Palestino wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cobreloa 1+ goals
72%
Cobreloa 2+ goals
36%
Cobreloa 3+ goals
14%
Palestino 1+ goals
71%
Palestino 2+ goals
35%
Palestino 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cobreloa (draw refunded)
51%
Palestino (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cobreloa at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

Palestino away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cobreloa attack 1.31 + Palestino defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Palestino attack 1.72 + Cobreloa defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cobreloa scores more
37%
level
27%
Palestino scores more
36%

Cobreloa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cobreloa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cobreloa vs Palestino

Palestino beat Cobreloa 1-0 in Copa Chile on June 19, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Zorros del Desierto in Calama.