Cobreloa 1–3 Deportes Limache: Result & Stats

Cobreloa

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Deportes Limache

W. Ponce 90' (pen)

A. Jara 60', 45'

H. Salgado 6'

6/8/2025

Copa Chile · Round of 16Estadio Zorros del Desierto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Cobreloa30%

×Draw25%

Deportes Limache45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CobreloaExpected goals in this matchDeportes Limache

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.60

Cobreloa

1.25

Deportes Limache

1.60

Deportes Limache creates 28% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 11 away

1.31

creates per match

2.45

0.75

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Cobreloa

1.31

Deportes Limache

2.45

allows per match

Cobreloa

0.75

Deportes Limache

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cobreloa+0.00on par

Deportes Limache+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cobreloa ↓

Deportes Limache →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Cobreloa or draw

55%

Cobreloa or Deportes Limache

75%

Draw or Deportes Limache

70%

Winning margin

Cobreloa wins by 2+

13%

Deportes Limache wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Cobreloa 1+ goals

71%

Cobreloa 2+ goals

36%

Cobreloa 3+ goals

13%

Deportes Limache 1+ goals

80%

Deportes Limache 2+ goals

47%

Deportes Limache 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Cobreloa (draw refunded)

40%

Deportes Limache (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cobreloa at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

Deportes Limache away — creates 2.45, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cobreloa attack 1.31 + Deportes Limache defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Deportes Limache attack 2.45 + Cobreloa defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cobreloa scores more

30%

level

25%

Deportes Limache scores more

45%

Deportes Limache at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Deportes Limache will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

H. Salgado↳ L. Guerra

16'

23'

31'

38'

45'

A. Jara↳ B. Silva

46'

J. Ovalle← H. Salgado

56'

B. Silva

57'

W. Ponce← A. Valdés

60'

A. Jara↳ J. Ovalle

67'

S. Zúñiga← I. Ledezma

67'

M. Sandoval← D. Portilla

67'

67'

75'

77'

81'

B. Bustamante← D. Tapia

81'

G. Navarrete← C. Muga

83'

G. Rojas

85'

D. Castro

90'

W. PoncePenalty

Cobreloa

Deportes

26

Peranic

23

Pacheco

11

Fritz

24

▼

Portilla

2

Aguirre

3

Paz

10

A

▼

Guerra

31

A

▼

Silva

20

⚽2

▼

Jara

8

Catalán

15

⚽

▼

Salgado

31

Salazar

17

▼

Tapia

14

Rojas

21

▼

Muga

33

Heredia

4

Tapia

15

▼

Valdés

24

García

7

Gotti

30

▼

Ledezma

37

Navarro

Manager: César Alexis Bravo Castillo

57'▲W. Ponce←▼A. Valdés

67'▲S. Zúñiga←▼I. Ledezma

81'▲B. Bustamante←▼D. Tapia

81'▲G. Navarrete←▼C. Muga

Cobreloa substitutes

35Bustamante23Navarrete32Zúñiga9Ponce18Meléndez38Fajardo25Acevedo5González1Araya

Manager: Víctor Javier Rivero Faccioli

46'▲J. Ovalle←▼H. Salgado

67'▲M. Sandoval←▼D. Portilla

67'▲F. Romero←▼B. Silva

67'▲D. Castro←▼L. Guerra

77'▲C. Morales←▼A. Jara

Deportes Limache substitutes

17Morales5Sandoval13Romero19Castro16Ovalle4Torrealba35Poblete9Silva33Morales