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Cobreloa vs D. Melipilla — Primera B 2018

Cobreloa
Cobreloa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
D. Melipilla
D. Melipilla
8/31/2019Primera BPrimera B · Round 21Estadio Zorros del Desierto (Calama)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Cobreloa52%
×Draw25%
D. Melipilla23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cobreloa
1.58
D. Melipilla
0.96

Cobreloa creates 65% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 52 away

creates per match

Cobreloa
1.75
D. Melipilla
1.04

allows per match

Cobreloa
0.88
D. Melipilla
1.42

finishing

Cobreloa+0.00on par
D. Melipilla+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cobreloa ↓

D. Melipilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cobreloa or draw
77%
Cobreloa or D. Melipilla
75%
Draw or D. Melipilla
48%

Winning margin

Cobreloa wins by 2+
27%
D. Melipilla wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cobreloa 1+ goals
79%
Cobreloa 2+ goals
47%
Cobreloa 3+ goals
21%
D. Melipilla 1+ goals
62%
D. Melipilla 2+ goals
25%
D. Melipilla 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cobreloa (draw refunded)
69%
D. Melipilla (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cobreloa at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.88 · 107 matches

D. Melipilla away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.42 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cobreloa attack 1.75 + D. Melipilla defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.58

D. Melipilla attack 1.04 + Cobreloa defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cobreloa scores more
52%
level
25%
D. Melipilla scores more
23%

Cobreloa at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cobreloa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Cobreloa 0–1 D. Melipilla

D. Melipilla beat Cobreloa 1-0 in Primera B on August 31, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Zorros del Desierto (Calama).