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Cobreloa vs Coquimbo Unido — Primera B 2026

Cobreloa
Cobreloa
CANC
00:00
Coquimbo Unido
Coquimbo Unido
8/25/2018Primera BPrimera B · Round 21Estadio Zorros del Desierto (Calama)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Cobreloa42%
×Draw27%
Coquimbo Unido31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cobreloa
1.38
Coquimbo Unido
1.14

Cobreloa creates 21% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 20 away

creates per match

Cobreloa
1.75
Coquimbo Unido
1.40

allows per match

Cobreloa
0.88
Coquimbo Unido
1.00

finishing

Cobreloa+0.00on par
Coquimbo Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cobreloa ↓

Coquimbo Unido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cobreloa or draw
69%
Cobreloa or Coquimbo Unido
73%
Draw or Coquimbo Unido
58%

Winning margin

Cobreloa wins by 2+
20%
Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cobreloa 1+ goals
75%
Cobreloa 2+ goals
40%
Cobreloa 3+ goals
16%
Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals
68%
Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals
32%
Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cobreloa (draw refunded)
58%
Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cobreloa at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.88 · 101 matches

Coquimbo Unido away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cobreloa attack 1.75 + Coquimbo Unido defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.40 + Cobreloa defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cobreloa scores more
42%
level
27%
Coquimbo Unido scores more
31%

Cobreloa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cobreloa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Cobreloa host Coquimbo Unido

August 25, 2018: Cobreloa take on Coquimbo Unido in Primera B. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Cobreloa host Coquimbo Unido at Estadio Zorros del Desierto (Calama).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.