Cobh Ramblers 1–2 Dundalk: Result & Stats

Cobh Ramblers

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Dundalk

S. Griffin 55'

G. Arubi 45'

D. Horgan 38'

5/16/2025

First Division · Round 15St. Colman's Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Cobh Ramblers26%

×Draw25%

Dundalk49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cobh RamblersExpected goals in this matchDundalk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.59

Cobh Ramblers

1.09

Dundalk

1.59

Dundalk creates 46% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 18 away

1.47

creates per match

1.78

1.41

allows per match

0.72

creates per match

Cobh Ramblers

1.47

Dundalk

1.78

allows per match

Cobh Ramblers

1.41

Dundalk

0.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cobh Ramblers+0.00on par

Dundalk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cobh Ramblers ↓

Dundalk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cobh Ramblers or draw

51%

Cobh Ramblers or Dundalk

75%

Draw or Dundalk

74%

Winning margin

Cobh Ramblers wins by 2+

10%

Dundalk wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Cobh Ramblers 1+ goals

66%

Cobh Ramblers 2+ goals

30%

Cobh Ramblers 3+ goals

10%

Dundalk 1+ goals

80%

Dundalk 2+ goals

47%

Dundalk 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Cobh Ramblers (draw refunded)

35%

Dundalk (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cobh Ramblers at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.41 · 116 matches

Dundalk away — creates 1.78, concedes 0.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cobh Ramblers attack 1.47 + Dundalk defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.09

Dundalk attack 1.78 + Cobh Ramblers defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cobh Ramblers scores more

26%

level

25%

Dundalk scores more

49%

Dundalk at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dundalk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

20'

25'

29'

31'

D. Holland← C. Bargary

38'

45'

52'

54'

54'

55'

60'

N. O'Keeffe← J. Abbott

60'

N. Evers← J. Hakkinen

61'

D. Ebbe← G. Arubi

61'

E. Kenny← K. Ward

61'

A. Paraschiv← H. Groome

64'

D. Holland

75'

D. Bosnjak← S. Bellis

88'

90+3'

90+3'

90+4'

Cobh

Dundalk

1

2

15

4

17

▼

Ward

6

Dervin

8

▼

Groome

3

Keogh

7

⚽

Horgan

10

▼

Gaxha

11

⚽

▼

16

6

14

18

▼

Hakkinen

38

Bervet

39

▼

Abbott

23

⚽

Griffin

8

Coffey

7

▼

Bargary

9

Murphy

45

▼

Bellis

Manager: M. McDermott

31'▲D. Holland←▼C. Bargary

60'▲N. O'Keeffe←▼J. Abbott

60'▲N. Evers←▼J. Hakkinen

75'▲D. Bosnjak←▼S. Bellis

Cobh Ramblers substitutes

70Lane3O'Donovan4O'Keeffe5Frahill11O'Leary12Evers17Bosnjak28Holland77Nunn

Manager: C. Kilduff

61'▲D. Ebbe←▼G. Arubi

61'▲E. Kenny←▼K. Ward

61'▲A. Paraschiv←▼H. Groome

88'▲S. Tracey←▼L. Gaxha

Dundalk substitutes

18Cherrie20Safaei9Ebbe12Mulligan16Kenny23Paraschiv26Tracey19Spaight

First Division: Cobh Ramblers 1–2 Dundalk

Dundalk beat Cobh Ramblers 2-1 in First Division on May 16, 2025.

Goals: D. Horgan (38'), G. Arubi (45'), S. Griffin (55').

The match was played at St. Colman's Park in Cobh.

Cobh Ramblers vs Dundalk — First Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First Division: Cobh Ramblers 1–2 Dundalk