Cobán Imperial 2–1 Sololá: Result & Stats

Cobán Imperial

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sololá

3/12/2022

Liga Nacional · Clausura - 12Estadio Verapaz Jose Angel Rossi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Cobán Imperial62%

×Draw22%

Sololá15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cobán ImperialExpected goals in this matchSololá

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.77

Cobán Imperial

1.82

Sololá

0.77

Cobán Imperial creates 136% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 23 away

1.51

creates per match

0.74

0.80

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Cobán Imperial

1.51

Sololá

0.74

allows per match

Cobán Imperial

0.80

Sololá

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cobán Imperial+0.00on par

Sololá+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cobán Imperial ↓

Sololá →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cobán Imperial or draw

85%

Cobán Imperial or Sololá

78%

Draw or Sololá

38%

Winning margin

Cobán Imperial wins by 2+

36%

Sololá wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Cobán Imperial 1+ goals

84%

Cobán Imperial 2+ goals

54%

Cobán Imperial 3+ goals

27%

Sololá 1+ goals

54%

Sololá 2+ goals

18%

Sololá 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Cobán Imperial (draw refunded)

80%

Sololá (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cobán Imperial at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.80 · 146 matches

Sololá away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.13 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cobán Imperial attack 1.51 + Sololá defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.82

Sololá attack 0.74 + Cobán Imperial defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Cobán Imperial scores more

62%

level

22%

Sololá scores more

15%

Cobán Imperial at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Cobán Imperial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff