COB 1–1 USFAS Bamako: Result & Stats

COB

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

USFAS Bamako

2/12/2023

Première Division · Round 11Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

COB32%

×Draw31%

USFAS Bamako37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

COBExpected goals in this matchUSFAS Bamako

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.04

COB

0.96

USFAS Bamako

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 93 away

0.86

creates per match

0.99

1.09

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

COB

0.86

USFAS Bamako

0.99

allows per match

COB

1.09

USFAS Bamako

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

COB+0.00on par

USFAS Bamako+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

COB ↓

USFAS Bamako →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

COB or draw

63%

COB or USFAS Bamako

69%

Draw or USFAS Bamako

68%

Winning margin

COB wins by 2+

12%

USFAS Bamako wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

COB 1+ goals

62%

COB 2+ goals

25%

COB 3+ goals

7%

USFAS Bamako 1+ goals

65%

USFAS Bamako 2+ goals

28%

USFAS Bamako 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

COB (draw refunded)

47%

USFAS Bamako (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

COB at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.09 · 66 matches

USFAS Bamako away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.05 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

COB attack 0.86 + USFAS Bamako defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.96

USFAS Bamako attack 0.99 + COB defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

COB scores more

32%

level

31%

USFAS Bamako scores more

37%

USFAS Bamako at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "USFAS Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff