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COB vs Black Stars — Première Division 2019

COB
COB
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Black Stars
Black Stars
5/27/2023Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 20Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

COB40%
×Draw29%
Black Stars31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

COB
1.16
Black Stars
0.98

COB creates 18% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 67 away

creates per match

COB
0.86
Black Stars
0.87

allows per match

COB
1.09
Black Stars
1.46

finishing

COB+0.00on par
Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

COB ↓

Black Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

COB or draw
69%
COB or Black Stars
71%
Draw or Black Stars
60%

Winning margin

COB wins by 2+
17%
Black Stars wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

COB 1+ goals
69%
COB 2+ goals
32%
COB 3+ goals
11%
Black Stars 1+ goals
62%
Black Stars 2+ goals
26%
Black Stars 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

COB (draw refunded)
56%
Black Stars (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

COB at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.09 · 66 matches

Black Stars away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.46 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

COB attack 0.86 + Black Stars defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.16

Black Stars attack 0.87 + COB defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

COB scores more
40%
level
29%
Black Stars scores more
31%

COB at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "COB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: COB 2–2 Black Stars

COB and Black Stars drew 2-2 in Première Division on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta in Bamako.