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Coatepecano IB vs Suchitepéquez — League #338 2026

Coatepecano IB
Coatepecano IBadvanced
FT
5 – 0
Suchitepéquez
Suchitepéquez
5/28/2023League #338League #338 · Clausura - Semi-finalsEstadio Israel Barrios

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Coatepecano IB81%
×Draw14%
Suchitepéquez5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coatepecano IB
2.46
Suchitepéquez
0.46

Coatepecano IB creates 435% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

creates per match

Coatepecano IB
3.00
Suchitepéquez
0.92

allows per match

Coatepecano IB
0.00
Suchitepéquez
1.92

finishing

Coatepecano IB+0.00on par
Suchitepéquez+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coatepecano IB ↓

Suchitepéquez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–16%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Coatepecano IB or draw
95%
Coatepecano IB or Suchitepéquez
86%
Draw or Suchitepéquez
19%

Winning margin

Coatepecano IB wins by 2+
59%
Suchitepéquez wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Coatepecano IB 1+ goals
91%
Coatepecano IB 2+ goals
70%
Coatepecano IB 3+ goals
44%
Suchitepéquez 1+ goals
37%
Suchitepéquez 2+ goals
8%
Suchitepéquez 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Coatepecano IB (draw refunded)
94%
Suchitepéquez (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coatepecano IB at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

Suchitepéquez away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coatepecano IB attack 3.00 + Suchitepéquez defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.46

Suchitepéquez attack 0.92 + Coatepecano IB defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Coatepecano IB scores more
81%
level
14%
Suchitepéquez scores more
5%

Coatepecano IB at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Coatepecano IB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #338: Coatepecano IB 5–0 Suchitepéquez

Coatepecano IB beat Suchitepéquez 5-0 in League #338 on May 28, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Israel Barrios in Coatepeque.