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Coatepecano IB vs Guastatoya — Liga Nacional 2019

Coatepecano IB
Coatepecano IB
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Guastatoya
Guastatoya
10/22/2023Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 13Estadio Israel Barrios

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Coatepecano IB40%
×Draw30%
Guastatoya30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coatepecano IB
1.15
Guastatoya
0.96

Coatepecano IB creates 20% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 152 away

creates per match

Coatepecano IB
1.00
Guastatoya
0.73

allows per match

Coatepecano IB
1.19
Guastatoya
1.30

finishing

Coatepecano IB+0.00on par
Guastatoya+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coatepecano IB ↓

Guastatoya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Coatepecano IB or draw
70%
Coatepecano IB or Guastatoya
70%
Draw or Guastatoya
60%

Winning margin

Coatepecano IB wins by 2+
17%
Guastatoya wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Coatepecano IB 1+ goals
68%
Coatepecano IB 2+ goals
32%
Coatepecano IB 3+ goals
11%
Guastatoya 1+ goals
62%
Guastatoya 2+ goals
25%
Guastatoya 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Coatepecano IB (draw refunded)
57%
Guastatoya (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coatepecano IB at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

Guastatoya away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.30 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coatepecano IB attack 1.00 + Guastatoya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

Guastatoya attack 0.73 + Coatepecano IB defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Coatepecano IB scores more
40%
level
30%
Guastatoya scores more
30%

Coatepecano IB at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Coatepecano IB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: Coatepecano IB 0–1 Guastatoya

Guastatoya beat Coatepecano IB 1-0 in Liga Nacional on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Israel Barrios in Coatepeque.