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Coatepecano IB vs Comunicaciones — Liga Nacional 2019

Coatepecano IB
Coatepecano IB
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Comunicaciones
Comunicaciones
8/19/2023Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 4Estadio Israel Barrios

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Coatepecano IB34%
×Draw29%
Comunicaciones37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coatepecano IB
1.10
Comunicaciones
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 157 away

creates per match

Coatepecano IB
1.00
Comunicaciones
1.11

allows per match

Coatepecano IB
1.19
Comunicaciones
1.20

finishing

Coatepecano IB+0.00on par
Comunicaciones+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coatepecano IB ↓

Comunicaciones →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Coatepecano IB or draw
63%
Coatepecano IB or Comunicaciones
71%
Draw or Comunicaciones
66%

Winning margin

Coatepecano IB wins by 2+
14%
Comunicaciones wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Coatepecano IB 1+ goals
67%
Coatepecano IB 2+ goals
30%
Coatepecano IB 3+ goals
10%
Comunicaciones 1+ goals
68%
Comunicaciones 2+ goals
32%
Comunicaciones 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Coatepecano IB (draw refunded)
48%
Comunicaciones (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coatepecano IB at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

Comunicaciones away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.20 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coatepecano IB attack 1.00 + Comunicaciones defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Comunicaciones attack 1.11 + Coatepecano IB defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Coatepecano IB scores more
34%
level
29%
Comunicaciones scores more
37%

Comunicaciones at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Comunicaciones will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Coatepecano IB vs Comunicaciones

Coatepecano IB and Comunicaciones drew 1-1 in Liga Nacional on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Israel Barrios in Coatepeque.