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Coastal Union vs Simba — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Coastal Union
Coastal Union
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Simba
Simba
Unknown 25'
E. Onana 74'
F. M. Koubalan 12'
3/9/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 18Mkwakwani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Coastal Union19%
×Draw27%
Simba54%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coastal Union
0.71
Simba
1.42

Simba creates 100% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 24 away

creates per match

Coastal Union
1.00
Simba
1.75

allows per match

Coastal Union
1.09
Simba
0.42

finishing

Coastal Union+0.00on par
Simba+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coastal Union ↓

Simba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–117%
0–212%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Coastal Union or draw
46%
Coastal Union or Simba
73%
Draw or Simba
81%

Winning margin

Coastal Union wins by 2+
5%
Simba wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Coastal Union 1+ goals
51%
Coastal Union 2+ goals
16%
Coastal Union 3+ goals
4%
Simba 1+ goals
76%
Simba 2+ goals
41%
Simba 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Coastal Union (draw refunded)
26%
Simba (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coastal Union at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

Simba away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.42 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coastal Union attack 1.00 + Simba defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 0.71

Simba attack 1.75 + Coastal Union defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Coastal Union scores more
19%
level
27%
Simba scores more
54%

Simba at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Simba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
F. M. Koubalan
25'
74'
E. Onana

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Coastal Union vs Simba

Simba beat Coastal Union 2-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on March 9, 2024.

Goals: F. M. Koubalan (12'), ? (25'), E. Onana (74').

The match was played at Mkwakwani Stadium in Tanga.