Coastal Union 1–1 KMC: Result & Stats

Coastal Union

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

KMC

M. M. Maabad 85' (pen)

D. Kulwa 1'

12/29/2024

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 16Sheikh Amri Abeid Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Coastal Union51%

×Draw28%

KMC21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coastal UnionExpected goals in this matchKMC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.78

Coastal Union

1.36

KMC

0.78

Coastal Union creates 74% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 30 away

0.93

creates per match

0.57

1.00

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Coastal Union

0.93

KMC

0.57

allows per match

Coastal Union

1.00

KMC

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coastal Union+0.00on par

KMC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coastal Union ↓

KMC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Coastal Union or draw

79%

Coastal Union or KMC

72%

Draw or KMC

49%

Winning margin

Coastal Union wins by 2+

24%

KMC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Coastal Union 1+ goals

74%

Coastal Union 2+ goals

39%

Coastal Union 3+ goals

16%

KMC 1+ goals

54%

KMC 2+ goals

18%

KMC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Coastal Union (draw refunded)

70%

KMC (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coastal Union at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.00 · 27 matches

KMC away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.80 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coastal Union attack 0.93 + KMC defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.36

KMC attack 0.57 + Coastal Union defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Coastal Union scores more

51%

level

28%

KMC scores more

21%

Coastal Union at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Coastal Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

D. Kulwa

85'

M. M. MaabadPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff