Coastal Union 1–0 Biashara United: Result & Stats

Coastal Union

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Biashara United

5/11/2022

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 23Mkwakwani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Coastal Union45%

×Draw32%

Biashara United23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coastal UnionExpected goals in this matchBiashara United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.68

Coastal Union

1.09

Biashara United

0.68

Coastal Union creates 60% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 51 away

0.98

creates per match

0.57

0.79

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Coastal Union

0.98

Biashara United

0.57

allows per match

Coastal Union

0.79

Biashara United

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coastal Union+0.00on par

Biashara United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coastal Union ↓

Biashara United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Coastal Union or draw

77%

Coastal Union or Biashara United

68%

Draw or Biashara United

55%

Winning margin

Coastal Union wins by 2+

19%

Biashara United wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Coastal Union 1+ goals

66%

Coastal Union 2+ goals

30%

Coastal Union 3+ goals

10%

Biashara United 1+ goals

49%

Biashara United 2+ goals

15%

Biashara United 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Coastal Union (draw refunded)

66%

Biashara United (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coastal Union at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.79 · 110 matches

Biashara United away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.20 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coastal Union attack 0.98 + Biashara United defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.09

Biashara United attack 0.57 + Coastal Union defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Coastal Union scores more

45%

level

32%

Biashara United scores more

23%

Coastal Union at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Coastal Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff