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Coastal Heroes vs Zoo Kericho — Super League 2018

Coastal Heroes
Coastal Heroes
CANC
00:00
Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
7/3/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 34Mbaraki Sports Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Coastal Heroes43%
×Draw24%
Zoo Kericho32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coastal Heroes
1.59
Zoo Kericho
1.34

Coastal Heroes creates 19% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 14 away

creates per match

Coastal Heroes
1.55
Zoo Kericho
1.64

allows per match

Coastal Heroes
1.04
Zoo Kericho
1.64

finishing

Coastal Heroes+0.00on par
Zoo Kericho+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coastal Heroes ↓

Zoo Kericho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Coastal Heroes or draw
68%
Coastal Heroes or Zoo Kericho
76%
Draw or Zoo Kericho
57%

Winning margin

Coastal Heroes wins by 2+
22%
Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Coastal Heroes 1+ goals
80%
Coastal Heroes 2+ goals
47%
Coastal Heroes 3+ goals
21%
Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
74%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
39%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Coastal Heroes (draw refunded)
57%
Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coastal Heroes at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.04 · 73 matches

Zoo Kericho away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coastal Heroes attack 1.55 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.59

Zoo Kericho attack 1.64 + Coastal Heroes defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Coastal Heroes scores more
43%
level
24%
Zoo Kericho scores more
32%

Coastal Heroes at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Coastal Heroes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coastal Heroes face Zoo Kericho (Super League)

Super League returns with Coastal Heroes hosting Zoo Kericho. Match starts July 3, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Coastal Heroes host Zoo Kericho at Mbaraki Sports Club.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.